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Building resilience to climate change in the Afrotropics hinges on accurately predicting the style and tempo of ecosystem responses. Paleoecological records offer valuable insights into vegetation dynamics, yet high-resolution data sets remain scarce in Africa. Here, we present a new radiocarbon-dated sediment core from Lake Tanganyika, capturing terrestrial ecosystem responses to hydroclimate variability and fire activity during the Common Era. Phytolith and macrocharcoal records reveal oscillations between grasslands and woodlands in the Zambezian miombo region, transitioning from “stable” to “unstable” states depending on fire disturbance levels. The expansion of grasslands was facilitated by reduced precipitation, increased fire activity, and ecosystem interactions. Our data sets provide new constraints regarding the timing and landscape responses within the Lake Tanganyika watershed to global hydroclimate changes, including the relatively dry Medieval climate anomaly (ca. 1000−1250 CE) and the two phases of the Little Ice Age. Cold and wet conditions, which favored tree encroachment, prevailed during the “early” Little Ice Age (ca. 1250−1530 CE), whereas drier conditions coupled with increased fire activity during the “main” Little Ice Age (ca. 1530−1850 CE) promoted the expansion of open grasslands. Significant changes in grassland-woodland communities were driven and modulated by hydroclimate and rapid ecosystem feedbacks. Fire activity served as both a disruptive force, facilitating the opening of landscapes and restricting the encroachment of trees, and a steadying control that promoted a grassland “stable state” in the tropical savannas surrounding Lake Tanganyika. Understanding shifting vegetation patterns throughout the Common Era offers valuable insights for developing biodiversity conservation strategies, sustainable land-use practices, and the maintenance of ecosystem services provided by miombo woodlands for millions of rural poor in the Lake Tanganyika basin. 

Significance We have developed an Africa-wide synthesis of paleoenvironmental variability over the Plio-Pleistocene. We show that there is strong evidence for orbital forcing of variability during this time that is superimposed on a longer trend of increasing environmental variability, supporting a combination of both low- and high-latitude drivers of variability. We combine these results with robust estimates of mammalian speciation and extinction rates and find that variability is not significantly correlated with these rates. These findings do not currently support a link between environmental variability and turnover and thus fail to corroborate predictions derived from the variability selection hypothesis. 

Paleoanthropologists have long speculated about the role of environmental change in shaping human evolution in Africa. In recent years, drill cores of late Neogene lacustrine sedimentary rocks have yielded valuable high-resolution records of climatic and ecosystem change. Eastern African Rift sediments (primarily lake beds) provide an extraordinary range of data in close proximity to important fossil hominin and archaeological sites, allowing critical study of hypotheses that connect environmental history and hominin evolution. We review recent drill-core studies spanning the Plio–Pleistocene boundary (an interval of hominin diversification, including the earliest members of our genus Homo and the oldest stone tools), and the Mid–Upper Pleistocene (spanning the origin of Homo sapiens in Africa and our early technological and dispersal history). Proposed drilling of Africa's oldest lakes promises to extend such records back to the late Miocene. ▪ High-resolution paleoenvironmental records are critical for understanding external drivers of human evolution. ▪ African lake basin drill cores play a critical role in enhancing hominin paleoenvironmental records given their continuity and proximity to key paleoanthropological sites. ▪ The oldest African lakes have the potential to reveal a comprehensive paleoenvironmental context for the entire late Neogene history of hominin evolution.